Dear Fantasy Speed Skating Managers,
Get ready to be disappointed. Dad is busy working this week (he’s found gainful employment as a leftist partisan hack), so stepdad is writing this year’s draft night recap column. Unfortunately, stepdad is dumber, less handsome, and far less knowledgeable about fantasy speed skating than dad. As such, please expect a shorter, less funny article with a lack of any meaningful analysis. You’ve been warned.
Draft night 2023 involved a record 40 teams who picked a total of 400 skaters. Congratulations to everyone but Jalen and Peter for showing up prepared and keeping track of who was already picked in your pool. After witnessing (and often participating in) some braindead picks in the league’s early years, it’s refreshing to see managers putting careful thought and effort into their picks. This unfortunately excludes Jill, Ian, Alex, and Zach (in the 5th round!?), who all drafted Kim Min-Seok. Unless the league starts awarding points for drunk driving or car crashes, these managers are likely to be disappointed by this pick.
Following Dad’s tradition, I’ll present the
Preseason Power Rankings
. In past years, Dad noted that the rankings were highly subjective and unworthy of “fame or money”. I’m happy to report that this year’s rankings are not only equally worthless, but also required less less critical thought to develop.
This year’s rankings are based on stepdad’s Skater Predicted Points (Skater PP) model. Before you read the list and get mad because your ranking is nonsensical, please consider that the Skater PP model’s predictive capacity is somewhere between “fairly limited” and “totally bogus”. The model ranks skaters based on last year’s performance only, so skaters who didn’t score points last year aren’t included in the rankings (stepdad had to Google “Tim Prins” on draft night to figure out who he was). Skaters who aren’t skating this season are also excluded (the Chinese team is also excluded because I can never figure out which of them are skating and I’m scared of making a stupid pick). Finally, the model also doesn’t take into account which distances each skater qualified for this season, which often results in goofy picks for Dutch skaters.
Anyways, here are the unofficial
Crappy Tire Preseason Power Rankings
(Surprisingly brought to you by Kal Tire this year, go figure):
Christian
Cody
Yankun
Darby
Sofia
Sam
Simon
Charlotte
Jenna
Thomas
Jake + Dylan
Cooper
Anna
Matt Z
Anders
Paul
Kiersten + Hayleigh
Ian
Alex
Luca
Jill
Peter
Jalen
Zach
Ryan
MCV
Eric + Emil
Matt L
Lindsey
Rob
Taylor
Bon
Nick
Max
Abby
Joel
Brooke
Daniel
Rachel
Greg
I’m not your real dad, so I’m not going to analyze every team. Send your complaints directly to the Albertan government or whoever he works for. Instead, here are my thoughts on the top 10 and bottom 10 teams. If you’re ranked between 11 and 30, I encourage you to submit an analysis of your own team in the comments.
Top 10 - Good Cheese
Unsurprisingly, Christian, Cody, Simon, and Thomas all make it into stepdad’s top 10. These seasoned managers have the benefit of in-depth knowledge and experience that comes from organizing the league for so many years. All are expected to perform well as they are also likely to stay on top of their team management during the season.
First-time managers Darby, Sofia, and Jenna also made the top 10, which could lead to a World The In Ice Fastest-esque upset (typing that team name still makes me ill). After some mind-bending picks last year, Yankun has picked up his game considerably, earning him a stop in the top 10. Charlotte and Sam also round out stepdad’s top 10.
Bottom 10 - Emin’s Mouldy Edam
I am thrilled to report that Greg has come in dead last in stepdad’s power rankings. If all goes well, Sky Guy should be up for the coveted “Least Improved” Emin Award. First-time managers Bon, Nick, Brooke, Daniel, and Rachel have also cracked the bottom 10. Don’t worry guys, things get better <3. Well not for everyone. After two seasons of not doing very good, Joel’s team looks primed to do not very good again this season. Perhaps we need a new “Perennial Bottom Dweller” Emin Award? Veteran managers Taylor, Max, and Abby are also in my bottom 10. Hopefully this is because they are smarter than the Skater PP model and not because they made bad picks. Time will tell.
Kudos to Mr. Emin
As an aside, Cooper almost cracks the top 10, giving him a chance to salvage his reputation after a heinous performance in the 2019/2020 draft. Unfortunately, Cooper is not eligible for the “Most Improved” award as he did so badly four years ago that this is actually his first time back.
Disagreements between your dads
Your real dad sent me a draft version of his rankings and I thought that it would be fun to compare his picks to mine. Here’s the good, the aight, and the wacky.
The Good
Both dad’s rankings and stepdad’s model have Simon, Sam, Cody, Christian, and Yankun in the top 10. Being validated by their real dad should be comforting for these managers. On the flipside, both dad and stepdad agree that Taylor, Brooke, Abby, Greg, and Rachel are potential bottom-dwellers. Tough go, gang.
The Aight
Dad says that Anna and Kiersten/Hayleigh have potentially top-performing teams, while stepdad’s model shows these teams in the upper-middle pack. On the bottom end, dad says that Zach, Jill, and Eric/Emil are dust, while stepdad has them near-dust. These minor disagreements between dad and stepdad are unlikely to result in a divorce between dad and stepdad.
The Wacky
This is where things get interesting. Stepdad’s Skater PP model has Darby and Sofia in the top 10, while Dad has these skaters teed up for 33rd and 38th place, respectively. Conversely, dad has Daniel and Matt L picked for top spots, while stepdad’s model has far less faith in either of these managers. These managers would do well to fight, threaten, or extort whichever dad thinks their team will do worse. For what it’s worth, I’ll happily wager one (1) can of Lucky Lager that the Skater PP rankings will top those made by dad.
????Look at this graph????
Here’s a graph of z-scores for those who want to see how they stack up comparatively in dad’s and stepdad’s predictions. I have no idea how dad came up with his numbers, but I graphed them anyways.
Picks
In a draft first, Jordan Stolz was the first skater to be picked in every pool. This was undoubtedly a solid choice, but an injury or surprise pregnancy could wreak havoc on the managers that drafted him. As expected, predicted skater performance generally dropped from round to round. This year’s results show that, on average, the first three picks have about the same point-generating potential as the last seven picks. Considering that two skaters are benched, this reinforces the importance of good early-round picks.
For interest, I tried to figure out draft night’s best and worst pick. A “good pick” is a skater that is projected to score more points than other skaters picked in its round. A “bad” pick is a skater that will score fewer points than other skaters picked in its round.
Greg and Brooke win the awards for the two worst picks with Kai Verbij and Maddison Pearman in rounds 4 and 5, respectively. However, since the model only takes last year’s performance into account, Greg can perhaps be forgiven for picking Kai so early. Considering that Pearman was picked 9th or 10th in the other pools, Brooke would have likely benefited from waiting a few rounds.
On the flipside, the Skater PP model’s predictions for best picks are somewhat nonsensical; it shows that Brooke, Bon, and Sofia are tied for picking Hein Otterspeer in the 10th round. The issue here is that the model doesn’t know that Otterspeer isn’t racing 1000 m, so it considers him a 3rd round pick. I have no hate for either of these picks, but I’m reluctant to crown the managers who made them as geniuses.
Injury and Free Agent Trackers
Your stepdad can’t help you here (there’s a reason that I outsource my picks to a model), but I did hear a rumour that Brittany Bowe is pregnant. Also Stolz, Jutta, and Ragne remain unpicked in all the pools and would be great catches for interested managers.
World Cup #1 starts on Thursday (MST), which means your initial roster changes will be due Thursday at 9:59 PM, MST. If you don’t submit an initial roster, your last two picks will automatically be benched.
Good luck managing your teams and have fun this season! God bless America, and God bless fantasy speed skating.
Cheers,
Stepdad