Hello Fantasy Speed Skating Managers,
In 1982, Gary Larson published a
Far Side
cartoon
called “Cow tools”. The cartoon, which was captioned “Cow tools”, depicts a cow
looking over a workbench at several crudely made instruments. The cartoon was
generally regarded as confusing and unfunny. Many consider it the most-disliked
Far Side
comic strip of all time. When asked for clarification about the
strip, Gary Larson apologized for the cartoon saying that the joke was that if
cows made tools, they “would lack something in sophistication and resemble the
sorry specimens in this cartoon”.
Much like cow tools, Dad’s recent column lacks something in
sophistication. Fortunately, Stepdad is here to fill the hole in your heart
left by Dad’s lack of detailed analysis.
Stepdad Goes Tech Bro
For the first time in years, Stepdad finished out of the
money last season. I would be lying if I told you that this didn’t hurt. People
like Dad, Your Biological Father, and Stepson will tell you that this is
because I am an idiot who doesn’t know anything about speed skating. Respectfully,
they are wrong. My problem isn’t that I don’t follow skating, my problem is
that I need a better model.
Previously, my Skater Predicted Points (Skater PP) model was
about as sophisticated as your average cow tool. This season, everything has
changed. The new Skater PP network is a fancy feedforward neural network that
harnesses the power of AI, machine learning, quantum game theory, and layered
autoethnography. The model works by taking in inputs such as points for
previous seasons, PB’s, gender, and country. It then uses the inputs to predict
the points that each skater will earn over the season.
Loyal Stepdad fans will of course ask how the new Skater PP
model is different from the old model. The answer is simple. In the old model,
I could tell you exactly how much each input impacted the prediction. Now, I
have no idea how the model works. This is the true power of AI. By having
almost no understanding of how the inputs affect the predicted outcomes, I have
managed to further reduce the thought required to play Fantasy Speed Skating. This
leaves me with more time to spend on my other hobbies, such as drinking Lucky Extra.
Will this new modelling approach work? I honestly don’t
know. I’m tempted to say that it can’t be worse than my previous models,
although if the neural network is egregiously overfit, then it could be much
much worse. Only time will tell if Stepdad is returned to the money, where I
belong.
Stepdad’s Power Rankings
I’m not going to steal Dad’s thunder and release my own
power rankings this year, especially since Dad has promised to thoroughly dunk
on all of us once he has the time. However, I will note the three cases where
Dad and my rankings align:
·
Ryan – 3
rd
Congratulations, Ryan. Dad and Stepdad don’t agree on much,
but we agree that your team looks pretty good this season. Consistently strong
points generators in the early and middle rounds are likely to keep things rolling.
Just make sure not to pull a Christian and drop one of your best skaters to
pick up Masaya Yamada after World Cup #1.
·
Joel – 15
th
Although Joel’s early picks were strong, some of Joel’s
mid-round picks such as Michele Malfatti (6
th
round) and
Metoděj Jílek (8
th
round) are more dubious. We’ll have to stay tuned
to see if good management and/or luck can pull Joel up the power rankings and
into the money this season.
·
Jess – 40
th
Chris Huizinga in the 1
st
round is the worst
draft pick of the season. Jenning de Boo in the 2
nd
round is also
brutal. Jess can be somewhat forgiven for being a rookie, but Dad and Stepdad
both agree that Jess’ team is a pile of cow tools.
Good Picks
As Dad mentioned in his column, the quality of the draft
picks this year was quite high. I used the Skater PP Model to analyze the
relative strength of each draft pick compared to the other picks in each round.
Here are some of my favourite picks:
·
Greg + Sofia – Vanessa Herzog (9
th
Round)
Before the draft started, Greg commented on being braindead
following provincial championships. My first thought was that this was unlikely
to affect Greg’s already generally braindead draft picks. However, Greg made
the inspired move of leaving the call early and putting Sofia in charge of the
last picks. Well done to Sofia for snagging Vanessa Herzog in the 9
th
round. The rest of Pool D should be embarrassed that they let this happen.
·
Darby – Vanessa Herzog (4
th
Round)
·
Molly + Claire + Victoria – Vanessa Herzog (5
th
Round)
For some reason, the Skater PP model really likes Herzog
this season. Although her first 500m at World Cup #1 was rocky, I’m still
(somewhat desperately) hopeful that she’ll have a strong season. Snagging
Herzog in the 4
th
and 5
th
round isn’t nearly as insane as
the 9
th
round, but it’s still a solid move for Darby and MCV.
·
Eric + Emil – Connor Howe (7
th
Round)
and Mia Manganello (8
th
Round)
Despite their veteran status, Eric and Emil have
consistently struggled to be good at Fantasy Speed Skating. Things might have
changed this year, with Emil no longer trusting his terrible instincts and
deferring to Eric to make the teams’ picks on draft night. The Skater PP model
says that Eric and Emil made the best picks of both the 7
th
and 8
th
rounds. Good work boys!
The full list of the best picks in each round according to
the model is:
Round
Skater
Team(s)
1
Miho Takagi
Ben, Anna +
Emma + Maya, Ryan, Joel, Eric + Emil
2
Min-Sun Kim
Lindsey
3
Min-Sun Kim
Anna + Emma +
Maya, Simon
4
Vanessa
Herzog
Darby
5
Vanessa
Herzog
MCV
6
Peder
Kongshaug
Paul + Jonah,
Connor
7
Connor Howe
Eric + Emil
8
Mia
Manganello
Eric + Emil
9
Vanessa
Herzog
Greg + Sofia
10
Ryota Kojima
Rob
Bad Picks (Cow Tools)
Not every pick on draft night was a good one. Here are the worst
picks of the night according to the Skater PP Model:
·
Jess – Chris Huizinga (1
st
Round)
Jess’ pick of Chris Huizinga first overall was the worst
pick of the draft. The first overall pick in every other pool was Miho.
Huizinga would miraculously have to start earning points in the 500, 1000, and
1500 to be a reasonable first round pick. He hasn’t skated any of these
distances since 2022.
·
Garrett – Chris Huizinga (2
nd
Round)
Hilariously, the worst pick of the second round was also
Chris Huizinga. In Garrett’s defence, he was drafting skaters from the side of
a rural Manitoban highway without using a list. This is
not
a
recommended strategy for draft night. It looks like Jess won’t be the only
Manitoban who’s hoping for a breakout sprinting season for Huizinga.
·
Ian and Reece – Chris Huizinga (4
th
Round)
The worst pick of the 4
th
round? Also Chris Huizinga.
For reference, the Skater PP Model seems to hate Huizinga, putting him at a
mid-ninth round pick. This is a very tough look for both Chris Huizinga and for
the managers who picked him so early in the draft.
The full list of the worst picks in each round according to
the model is:
Round
Skater
Team(s)
1
Chris Huizinga
Jess
2
Chris Huizinga
Garrett
3
Tim Prins
Kiersten + Hayleigh, Daniel, Taylor
4
Chris Huizinga
Ian, Reece
5
Michele Malfatti, Hallgeir
Engebraten, Metodej Jilek (Three-way tie)
So many teams
6
7
8
9
Kaitlyn McGregor
Cooper
10
Anders Johnson, Yankun Zhao (Tie)
Anna + Emma + Maya, Luca
Conclusion
That’s all for now, everyone. Please remember to send your
money to Simon and to submit your team name. A better team name is the number
one way of boosting your Fantasy Speed Skating performance, so choose
carefully!
Please send your hate mail directly to Dad. If you have any
questions or topics that you’d like me to explore in future Stepdad columns,
please let me know in the comments.
Yours in poorly-made tools,
Stepdad