Hello managers,
As promised, I’m back with another column. Though things have changed a bit and this
one isn’t going to cover the draft as extensively as I first planned.
Overall,
everyone made a ton of great picks and I’ve gotta say I’m really impressed.
This was the first year that nobody drafted a retired skater (unless Li is
retired, though this has been impossible to tell so far). Since so many skaters retired last season, I find this super shocking. Obviously you’d have to be operating
on a single brain cell to not have heard that Irene Schouten retired, but was
everyone as tuned in to Krol’s announcement during a down year? How about
Havard Lorentzen? Or Sverre Lunde Pedersen? Or Martine Ripsurd? (checks notes,
realizes she was way too irrelevant to get picked anyways). The fact that none
of these skaters got picked up, particularly in the late rounds when things get
a bit messy, is pretty wild. I’d like to offer a genuine congratulations to all
51 of the league’s managers for being a part of our strongest draft year yet.
We also saw some shockingly large differences in
rounds that skaters were drafted in different pools. For example, Ted went as
early as the 5
th
round but then went undrafted in another pool.
Vanessa Herzog went multiple times in the 3
rd
, but also went as late
as the 10
th
round. Graeme Fish went in the 3
rd
and the 7
th
.
Min-Sun Kim went in the 1
st
and the 3
rd
. Chris Huizinga
went in the 1
st
and the 5
th
. You get the picture.
Some people can attribute this to some questionable
picks. For example, Chris Huizinga is
almost
unanimously NOT a
first-round pick. I think this is looking at things the wrong way though. We
all know that this league is a bit of a copy-cat league. Cody could pick a jug
of milk in the 8
th
round, and I’d bet $5 that at least two other
managers would follow in his footsteps the next round and draft a jug of milk.
I get it – a lot of you are busy. It’s hard to take the time and come up with a
full list of 80 skaters when you can just copy what other managers are doing.
This has even proven to be a winning strategy, one perfected and still
practiced to this day by Ryan.
I think the discrepancies between these picks are
actually a sign that people are
thinking
about who they really want. I
don’t say that lightly, since I’ve never before been accused of attributing
thought to most managers. Year after year, most of you prove my hypothesis
right: fantasy speed skating managers are dumb. Like,
rock bottom dumb
.
But then this draft happened and… I almost want to say that most managers
actually made rational, individual decisions. Could that be possible? Is the
average fantasy speed skating manager adapting? Are we witnessing evolution,
right before our very eyes?
I don’t want to swing too hard the other way and say
that fantasy speed skating managers are smart, but I think this draft was a big
step in the right direction. For all the talk that myself and the rest of the
Council of Dads bring to the table regarding which picks were good, which picks
were bad, and who is going to win the draft, it’s impossible to know forsure
how things will play out. That’s why we do the damn thing! And so no matter
what we think about each pick, it’s exciting to see managers go out on a whim
and draft skaters when they’re comfortable drafting skaters rather than just
waiting to hear that skater get drafted in a few other pools.
For the next part of this column, we’re gonna have a
bit of fun. One of the most evident takeaways from Draft Day was the sheer
number of respectable skaters who were relegated to Free Agent status. To show
this, I thought it would be fun to put a couple of teams of free agents together
and then see how they compare to all of your shitty teams. For clarity, I just
want to say that this was definitely my idea and not Christian’s.
I’ve made
myself a single rule for making these teams: for a skater to be selected, they
had to be a Free Agent in at least one pool at the end of Draft Day. That’s it.
Now it’s time to see all the juicy picks that you idiots left undrafted for me
to scoop up.
Team 1: Dad’s Lads
This is Dad’s A Team. The best picks available,
objectively chosen by Dad based on vibes. Like your teams, this team has 10
skaters. Like your team, only 8 of these skaters will score points each weekend.
Though, instead of choosing a roster, the 8 skaters who collect the most points
each weekend will automatically be selected. This is for two reasons: first, to
save myself the trouble of having to manage yet another fantasy team. And
second, because these are all friggin free agents and we want to give this team
the best chance possible to take a few of the league’s real teams down. If we
didn’t give this roster a slight competitive edge, this exercise wouldn’t be as
fun.
So, who made the cut? I present to you: Dad’s Lads
- Ten-Jan Bloemen
- Nadezhda Morozova
- Hallgeir Engebraten
- Yukino Yoshida
- Andzelika Wojcik
- Jun-Ho Kim
- Yuma Murakami
- Cooper McLeod
- Bart Hoolwerf
- Andrea Giovannini
Not too shabby, eh? The clear weakness for this roster
is the gaping hole at the top where you would usually find the premier talent
drafted in the first three rounds. We’re talking about the multi-distance medal
contenders, the Blondins, Swings, Goetz, and Eitrems of the world. Does this
team have a chance to compete without any of these big names? Probably not,
unless it’s facing off against teams with first-round picks like Chris
Huizinga… hmm…
Team 2: The Leftovers
These are the ones that weren’t good enough to make it
onto all of your teams, but also not good enough to make it onto Dad’s Lads.
They are the leftovers, maybe even a bit stale after spending the evening out
on the countertop. They’re easily forgotten. But they’ve also got a chip on
their shoulder and are ready to prove the haters wrong. Unlike your team, this
team has 12 skaters. Unlike your team, all 12 members of this squad will be
competing for points every single weekend. Why, you ask? Because these skaters
really aren’t supposed to be that good.
I present to you: The Scraps
- Kaja Ziomek-Nogal
- Sanne In ‘t Hof
- Elisa Dul
- Tingyu Gao
- Bjorn Magnussen
- Casey Dawson
- Livio Wenger
- Na-Hyun Lee
- Moritz Klein
- Joep Wennemars
- Kaitlyn McGregor
- Merijn Scheperkamp
There were actually a lot of skaters to pick from
still, so this team was a bit harder to put together than I expected. I
thought 12 would be a stretch, but even with that many we’re leaving out some
quality talent: Masaya Yamada, Merel Conijn, Stefan Westenbroek, David Bosa,
Kazuya Yamada, Didrik Eng Strand, Jorrit Bergsma, Qishi Li, Piotr
Michalski, and Tijmen Snel, just to name a few.
Team 3: Jordan Stolz
Not much to explain on this one. Essentially, I’m a
bit worried that Jordan Stolz will be good enough on his own to challenge some
of the weaker teams in the league. Unlike your team, this team has only one
skater. Also, unlike your team, the entire roster gets points each weekend. The
key is that this team has Stolz – a wet dream for any serious fantasy manager.
I present to you: Jordan Stolz
Is Your Team Better Than a Bunch of Free
Agents?
So now we get to the fun part. How many real teams are
these teams of free agents beating?
Here’s the breakdown of World Cup 1:
148 points is actually a pretty respectable
achievement for some unwanted and unloved skaters. This would be tied for 24
th
in the League Standings. In other words, almost
half
of you have a team
that is worse than a bunch of free agents. Good job guys!
97 points isn’t nearly as good, but we have to
keep in mind that some of these skaters weren’t drafted by a single manager.
Nobody wanted these shitters! Still, though, this team is still beating two
teams in the standings. Two!
And finally, let’s take a look at Jordan Stolz.
For a single skater, 120 points in one weekend is
insane. Ivanie Blondin, who had her best weekend in years, managed 62 points.
Stolz is literally twice as good as the next best skater. He’s worth more than
3 Kimi Goetz, 4 Joy Beunes, almost 6 Antoinette Rijpma-de Jongs, 12 Ted-Jan
Bloemens, 20 Tingyu Gaos, or 120 Piotr Michalskis.
Stolz is also better than the bottom 7 teams,
including Stepdad’s team. For those following along, this shouldn’t be
surprising. Dad had Stepdad ranked third-last in the preseason edition of the
Crappy
Tire Power Rankings.
Keep that in mind going forward as you read any
Stepdad Columns – the model he uses to criticize your team is the same model
that he manages his team with. If a single skater could take his entire team
on, how bad is his Skater PP model?
As always, vibes > machine learning, AI,
and math.
That’s all I’ve got for today. Since I’ve already
published post-WC1 editions of the Free Agent and Injury Trackers, I don’t
think it’s worth posting an update on those. It’s nice to have the column going
again and I’ve been feeling pretty inspired lately, so maybe I’ll crank out one
more column before WC2. Or maybe not. Guess you’ll have to wait and see.
Cheers,
Dad